The present invention relates to an expert system and to a method of providing automated advice.
The invention has particular, but not exclusive, application to the field of financial services.
Recently, the range of financial services products available to the consumer has begun to express a dichotomy. The introduction of new technologies, systems and practices, coupled with consumers"" growing knowledge and confidence in the field of financial affairs have led to the development of xe2x80x9cexecution-onlyxe2x80x9d sales. In such sales even complex financial products such as pensions and investment productsxe2x80x94once thought of as requiring xe2x80x9cface-to-facexe2x80x9d consultationxe2x80x94are being sold on a commodity basis.
The public appetite for such products seems to be growing. Increasing affluence and a diminishing welfare state in many developed countries mean that people are considering private personal investments as desirable or even necessary. In addition, the pace of everyday life means that they have less time to spend planning and consulting advisors on these investments.
Newcomers to the field of financial services are providing execution-only financial products by a number of channels: using a traditional application form, by telephone contact and over the Internet, typically from a consumer""s own personal computer (PC). All of these channels have a significantly lower cost to the provider and avoid the cost of the provision and training of a traditional network of human advisers. Consequently, such providers are able to offer a cheaper service and/or be more profitable than their more traditional competitors. Established companies in the field may be reluctant to enter the execution-only market for fear that their good name will be tarnished. Their market share is, therefore, likely to diminish.
Some consumers may be reluctant to conduct an xe2x80x9cexecution-onlyxe2x80x9d transaction because of lack of confidence in their own ability in the relevant field. Equally they may be daunted by the prospect of a detailed, and possibly rather revealing, interview with a human expert. There is also the fear that the advice given must be paid for and there will be substantial hidden charges in whatever product or products are recommended. The customer thus needs to obtain the relevant assurance from a different source.
It is an object of the present invention to ameliorate the above disadvantages.
In a broad sense, a first aspect of the invention relates to an expert system comprising a knowledge base, means for deriving advice from that knowledge base and means for continually updating the knowledge base with advice given by human experts. The invention also resides in a method of providing an expert system comprising maintaining a knowledge base, deriving advice from that knowledge base and continually updating the knowledge base with advice given by human experts.
The term xe2x80x9cadvicexe2x80x9d should be understood to comprise anything that may result from an expert consultation, for example a medical diagnosis or the results of a fault-finding procedure on a piece of engineering machinery.
Considering the financial advice scenario, by linking the expert system to the customer profiles and decisions made by a company""s human financial advisers, the system is continually brought up-to-date without any need for particular and time-consuming action on the part of the operator of the system. Other benefits include the averaging of advice provided by the human experts and the transparency of the advice given. By providing continual, real data from a number of experts operating in the field, poor-quality advice given by a small number of the experts will not unduly influence the quality of advice given by the system. Consequently, an established company can provide services without human intervention and without compromising their reputationxe2x80x94they really can obtain the best of both Worlds.
The advice given will preferably, through its cosmetic appearance to the end-user/consumer, be associated with the company""s brand rather than with a particular adviser. Consequently the company need not fear that an adviser will quit the company, taking clients with them.
The transparency of the system is extremely important should the quality of the advice given come into question. The rules applied in any particular case will be readily derivable from the system. This ensures that the company or institution which runs the system has the necessary information to counter any allegations that advice in any particular case was flawed.
It is preferred that the system further comprises means for deriving a plurality of rules in response to the knowledge base, wherein the means for deriving advice from the knowledge base comprises means for applying the plurality of rules derived from the knowledge base. This may also be expressed in method terms as deriving a plurality of rules in response to the knowledge base, and deriving advice from the knowledge base by applying the plurality of rules derived from the knowledge base. The rules suitably comprise fuzzy rules, whereby the means for deriving advice can be arranged to provide a plurality of advice together with a respective indication of suitability.
To enable explanation to lay persons not versed in machine code, it is preferred that the rules are expressed in a natural language. The system may further include means for publishing the rules used to derive the advice.
The means for deriving advice preferably comprises an agent and in any event the system is apt to be structured as a distributed system, which is preferred, although the system could be implemented as a stand-alone system.
To maintain a human face, the system preferably further comprises means for providing a user with a consultation with a human expert. Such consultation is preferably provided remotely.
Put more specifically, an aspect of the invention resides in a knowledge-based system adapted to provide a recommendation tailored to a consumer, comprising:
a knowledge base containing historical data;
rule extraction means for extracting a ruleset from the knowledge base;
a rules database for holding the ruleset;
codifying means for codifying the requirements of the consumer; and
recommendation means for applying the ruleset to the codified consumer
requirements and generating the recommendation accordingly; characterized by rule induction means for providing learning inputs to the knowledge base from a plurality of human experts as they advise and make real-life recommendations to actual or imaginary consumers, the learning inputs reflecting the recommendations made by the experts and the requirements of the consumers that they have advised; and update means for running the rule extraction means on the knowledge base to refresh the rules database by extracting an updated ruleset from the knowledge base for application by the recommendation means to the requirements of future consumers.
This aspect can also be expressed as a method of building a knowledge-based system adapted to provide a recommendation tailored to a consumer, the system operating by extracting rules from a knowledge base and applying the extracted rules to codified consumer requirements to generate the recommendation accordingly; wherein the method is characterized by providing learning inputs to the knowledge base from a plurality of human experts as they advise and make real-life recommendations to actual or imaginary consumers, the inputs reflecting the recommendations made by the experts and the requirements of the consumers that they have advised; and, after learning inputs have been provided to the knowledge base, extracting updated rules from the knowledge base for use in generating recommendations tailored to the requirements of future consumers.
The update means suitably operates periodically and the rule induction means provides learning inputs to the knowledge base at least as frequently as the update means operates to extract an updated ruleset from the knowledge base. It is preferred that the rule induction means operates continuously to provide learning inputs as they are made available by the plurality of human experts.
As the possible range of recommendations will change from time to time as some products are introduced and others phased out, the update means is preferably adapted to update the knowledge base with changing details of recommendations that can be made.
Fully to understand the consumer""s requirements, the codifying means advantageously includes means for codifying the perceived needs of the consumer and means for codifying the circumstances of the consumer.
The rule induction means suitably generates fuzzy sets, and the recommendation means suitably applies fuzzy rules. The rule extraction means therefore preferably implements Lozowski""s algorithm but that algorithm is preferably modified to reduce memory and processing requirements. For example, attribute vectors may be generated incrementally, keeping only the last attribute vector generated with no storage of attribute vectors. This effectively fuses the creation of attribute vectors with the evaluation of T-Norm sets.
In an elegant arrangement, the attribute vectors can be incremented by generating a first attribute vector that contains the first fuzzy set for each attribute, and generating the next attribute vector by selecting the next fuzzy set of the first attribute in the first attribute vector. If the first attribute contains no more fuzzy sets to select, this technique further involves selecting the next attribute that contains more fuzzy sets to select, selecting the next fuzzy set of the selected attribute, and selecting the first fuzzy set of each lesser attribute than the selected attribute.
In another modification, a maximum T-Norm value can be generated while T-Norms are being generated. The T-Norm and S-Norm generating steps of Lozowski""s algorithm are thus effectively fused together.
A further modification involves pruning an attribute tree by eliminating attributes that play no part in rule-building. Pruning can be achieved by marking a fuzzy set that returns zero for a current dataset example, and omitting evaluation of any attribute vector that includes the marked fuzzy set. For example, pruning an attribute vector at class i can involve incrementing to the next fuzzy set value for the i-th digit of the vector while resetting any lesser digits to 0. If the i-th digit contains no more fuzzy sets, pruning involves incrementing the i+1-th digit.
Thus modified, Lozowski""s algorithm can be applied generally to different aspects of the invention.
Another aspect of the invention resides in a knowledge-based system adapted to provide a recommendation tailored to a consumer, comprising:
a knowledge base containing historical data;
rule extraction means for extracting a ruleset from the knowledge base;
a rules database for holding the ruleset;
codifying means for codifying the requirements of the consumer; and
recommendation means for applying the ruleset to the codified consumer requirements and generating the recommendation accordingly;
explanation means for explaining to the consumer the reason(s) for the recommendation, characterized in that the system uses XML (Extensible Markup Language) to define consumers and possible/actual recommendations.
This aspect may also be expressed as a method of operating a knowledge-based system to provide a recommendation tailored to a consumer, the system operating by extracting rules from a knowledge base and applying the extracted rules to codified consumer requirements to generate the recommendation accordingly and explaining to the consumer the reason(s) for the recommendation characterized in that XML (Extensible Markup Language) is used to define consumers and possible/actual recommendations.
The explanation means is suitably associated with the rule extraction means for locating the rules that govern decisions reached by the recommendation means in making the recommendation, and is configured to explain to the consumer the rules on which the recommendation was based. For the benefit of understanding by lay persons, the explanation means is preferably configured to express the explanation substantially in a natural language.
As before, the rule extraction means preferably runs Lozowski""s algorithm, which may be modified as set out above.
The recommendation means is suitably configured to provide the recommendation as a document based on an XML DTD (document type definition).
The recommendation means may be configured to suggest a plurality of alternative recommendations, in which case it is preferred that recommendations are ranked by their suitability.
The systems and methods of the invention preferably involve storing a consumer""s details for later recall. These details can be recalled later in providing a future recommendation, or in completing a recommendation where input of consumer requirements has been suspended temporarily.
Provision may be made for obtaining advice from a remote human adviser, for example over a video conference link between the consumer and the adviser.
The systems of the invention are preferably distributed. In the preferred embodiment to be described herein, a server holds the ruleset and data on consumers and on possible recommendations, a consumer terminal provides an online interface with the server, and a plurality of expert terminals are operable by the plurality of human experts. Each expert terminal including means for storing recommendations made by an expert and the requirements of consumers that that expert has advised, and means for providing that stored data to the server for use in updating the ruleset. The ruleset and data on consumers and on possible recommendations are preferably stored at the server as XML (Extensible Markup Language) documents.
The consumer terminal can take any suitable form, preferably being a home PC or a kiosk, booth, ATM or other terminal in a financial advice establishment.
The systems of the invention preferably include an application server enabling consumer terminals and expert terminals to interact with the server online, the application server providing an online interface to the server for the consumer terminals and the expert terminals. The application server can run server-side web applications, a first web application responding to calls from a consumer website, and a second web application allowing access to the server by authorized expert terminals. These server-side web applications are suitably Java Servlets.
The recommendation means of the invention may include an agent that applies the rules to the codified consumer requirements to generate the recommendation. To escape from a form-based interface that could swiftly discourage the consumer, the agent suitably asks a sequence of questions and includes means for adapting later questions in the sequence in accordance with answers given to earlier questions in the sequence. That way, the minimum of input is requested from the consumer and as much as possible is of relevance to the consumer.